Will Your Job Still Exist In 2030?
Automation is already here. Robots helped build your car and pack your latest online shopping order. A chatbot might help you figure out your credit card balance. A computer program might scan and process your résumé when you apply for work.
What will work in America look like a decade from now? A team of economists at the McKinsey Global Institute set out to figure it out in a new report out Thursday.
The research finds automation widening the gap between urban and rural areas and dramatically affecting people who didn't go to college or didn't finish high school. It also projects some occupations poised for massive growth or growing enough to offset displaced jobs.
Below are some of the key takeaways from McKinsey's forecast.
Most jobs will change; some will decline
"Intelligent machines are going to become more prevalent in every business. All of our jobs are going to change," said Susan Lund, co-author of the report. Almost 40% of U.S. jobs are in occupations that are likely to shrink — though not necessarily disappear — by 2030, the researchers found.
Employing almost 21 million Americans, office support is by far the most common U.S. occupation that's most at risk of losing jobs to digital services, according to McKinsey. Food service is another heavily affected category, as hotel, fast-food and other kitchens automate the work of cooks, dishwashers and others.
At the same time, "the economy is adding jobs that make use of new technologies," McKinsey economists wrote. Those jobs include software developers and information security specialists — who are constantly in short supply — but also solar panel installers and wind turbine technicians.
Health care jobs, including hearing aid specialists and home health aides, will stay in high demand for the next decade, as baby boomers age. McKinsey also forecast growth for jobs that tap into human creativity or "socioemotional skills" or provide personal service for the wealthy, like interior designers, psychologists, massage therapists, dietitians and landscape architects.